Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely - ResearchGate

Published: 2023/06/04 Authors: Ari Allyn-Feuer, Ted Sanders


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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - ResearchGate

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Published: 2023/06/04 Authors: Ari Allyn-Feuer, Ted Sanders

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[2306.02519] Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - ArXiv.org

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Jun 5, 2023  · This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and …

arxiv.org

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong

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Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into categories of software, ...

lesswrong.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely : R/singularity - Reddit

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Claude Next or Gemini if either are about 10x GPT4 might already be good enough, and I think it's highly likely they'll be cheaper than $25/h by 2043. Then again one true AGI might be able to …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is 1% Likely - Forum.nunosempere.com

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Jun 8, 2023  · Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is &lt;1% Likely - NASA/ADS

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This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be &lt;1%. …

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[2306.02519] Transformative AGI By 2043 Is &lt;1% Likely - ArXiv

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Jun 5, 2023  · Title: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely. Authors: Ari Allyn-Feuer, Ted Sanders (Submitted on 5 Jun 2023) Abstract: This paper is a submission to the Open …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong 2.0 Viewer

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(Crossposted to the EA forum) The linked paper is our submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Academia.edu

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This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be &lt;1%. …

academia.edu

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Semantic Scholar

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Jun 5, 2023  · The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or …

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TransformativeAGIby2043is<1%likely …

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Therearetwopossibleerrorstobewareof: DidweneglectpossibleparallelpathstotransformativeAGI ...

arxiv.org

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely | Papers With Code

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Jun 5, 2023  · Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional …

paperswithcode.com

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[2306.02519] Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Academ

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Jun 5, 2023  · Transformative AGI by 2043 is 1% likely. Ari Allyn-Feuer, Ted Sanders. June 05, 2023

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Catalyzex.com

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely: Paper and Code. This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative …

catalyzex.com

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Forecasting AGI - Sanders

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For AGI to do most human work for <$25/hr by 2043, many things must happen. Use this interactive web app to forecast individual events and see what they imply about the likelihood …

tedsanders.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Catalyzex.com

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely. Click To Get Model/Code. This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of …

catalyzex.com

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Hackernews: Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely -

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong : R ... - Reddit

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430 subscribers in the 2ndIntelligentSpecies community. The Second Intelligent Species is Marshall Brain's latest book on Earth's robotic future and…

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FAQs about Transformative AGI by 2043 is &lt;1% likely - ResearchGate Coupon?

What is the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043?

In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. ...

How likely is transformative AGI by 2043?

Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. ...

What is transformative AGI?

Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. ...

What is transformative AI?

The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. ...

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