[2306.02519] Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely - arXiv.org

Q: How likely is transformative AGI by 2043?

Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely.

Q: What is transformative AGI?

Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI.

Q: What is transformative AI?

The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI.

Jun 5, 2023 · This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and …

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[2306.02519] Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - ArXiv.org

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Jun 5, 2023 · This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and …

arxiv.org

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely. by Ted Sanders. 6th Jun 2023. Linkpost from arxiv.org. 6 min read. 117. 33. Review (Crossposted to the EA forum) Abstract. The linked paper is our …

lesswrong.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely : R/singularity - Reddit

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Claude Next or Gemini if either are about 10x GPT4 might already be good enough, and I think it's highly likely they'll be cheaper than $25/h by 2043. Then again one true AGI might be able to …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is 1% Likely - Forum.nunosempere.com

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Jun 8, 2023 · Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into …

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong 2.0 Viewer

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(Crossposted to the EA forum) The linked paper is our submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general …

greaterwrong.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Hacker News

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Aug 10, 2023 · Supposing transformative AGI is worth $100T/yr, and Anthropic has a 10% chance of capturing 10% of the value for an expected duration of 10 years, that would imply a …

ycombinator.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - NASA/ADS

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This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. …

harvard.edu

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Hackernews: Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely -

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - ResearchGate

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Jun 4, 2023 · Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems …

researchgate.net

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Semantic Scholar

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Jun 5, 2023 · The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or …

semanticscholar.org

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - Catalyzex.com

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely: Paper and Code. This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative …

catalyzex.com

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely - LessWrong

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430 subscribers in the 2ndIntelligentSpecies community. The Second Intelligent Species is Marshall Brain's latest book on Earth's robotic future and…

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Transformative AGI By 2043 Is <1% Likely: Paper And Code

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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely. Click To Get Model/Code. This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of …

catalyzex.com

FAQs about [2306.02519] Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely - arXiv.org Coupon?

How likely is transformative AGI by 2043?

Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. ...

What is the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043?

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. ...

What is transformative AGI?

Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. ...

What is transformative AI?

The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. ...